Office view
The media buying desk
Reading 0 variable combinations across 29 ad sets…
Spend
2239 €
+10.4%Conversions
47
-13.0%CPA
47,65 €
+26.8%ROAS
2.74
+7.2%CTR
2.29%
+7.0%Frequency
3.21
+3.1%Signal feed
Ranked by expected effect × confidence
What actually moves conversion rate
Every slice is measured against the account baseline. Bars to the right convert above the account; bars to the left drag it down.
Tue
Weekday
Problem
Message angle
Reminder
Message angle
19:00-23:00
Time slot
08:00-12:00
Time slot
Facebook Feed
Placement
Rest of Spain
Location
35-44
Age
Instagram Reels
Placement
Sun
Weekday
Combinations no single breakdown shows
Combined lift minus the lift you would expect if the two variables were independent. Pairs below the evidence bar are marked exploratory and contribute nothing to the forecast.
CPA 40,59 € against 52,43 € on the rest of the account · 34% of spend
10 ad sets · 19 conversions · enters the forecast at +7%
CPA 20,68 € against 51,59 € on the rest of the account · 6% of spend
2 ad sets · 6 conversions — below the bar, held out of the forecast
CPA 65,20 € against 44,57 € on the rest of the account · 20% of spend
3 ad sets · 7 conversions — below the bar, held out of the forecast
CPA 23,31 € against 59,06 € on the rest of the account · 16% of spend
6 ad sets · 15 conversions · enters the forecast at +7%
CPA 38,65 € against 49,78 € on the rest of the account · 16% of spend
2 ad sets · 9 conversions — below the bar, held out of the forecast
CPA 44,42 € against 47,95 € on the rest of the account · 8% of spend
2 ad sets · 4 conversions — below the bar, held out of the forecast
ROAS against spend, per ad set
7 ad sets sit in the scale quadrant: below average spend, above average return. Everything bottom-right is buying volume you are paying a premium for.
Age against gender
25-34 Women buys conversions at 36,11 €, the cheapest cell on the board.
When the account converts
19:00-23:00 carries the highest conversion rate of the day at 0.032%.
Geography
Valencia is the efficiency anchor at 35,72 € per conversion.
Conversions · cost per conversion · share of spend
Placement and device
Judge both on cost per conversion — cheap clicks are the classic trap.
Placement
Conversions · cost per conversion · share of spend
Device
Conversions · cost per conversion · share of spend
Message angle against creative asset
"Message us on WhatsApp · zero friction" on Static image is the winning combination at 17,02 €.
Decay curve · Instant form · BCN 25-54
Where extra spend stops buying conversions
6 ad sets are delivering above their efficient spend point. Everything in the lighter band is marginal volume you are overpaying for.
Forecast engine · build a scenario
Baseline for the objective family, then configuration lift, then creative state over your horizon, then the scale response. Expected performance and headroom are answered separately.
Baseline
Gender
Age
Time slot
Weekday
Location
Placement
Device
Message angle
Creative asset
Creative age
Frequency
Horizon
Daily budget
Expected performance
1.4
conversions/day ±0.2 over 14 days
- Predicted CPA
- 52,84 €
- Against baseline
- -9.8%
How the layers stack
Opportunity · headroom
381 € – 597 €
weekly spend this segment can absorb before marginal CPA deteriorates
- Running now
- 523 €/wk
- Marginal CPA now
- 57,12 €
- At the ceiling
- 59,56 €
Reliability
High confidence47 conversions across 29 ad sets · 73 days live · 100% agreement
Where the lift comes from
Same budget, different split
Budget reweighted by segment efficiency with a 25% floor per segment, and diminishing returns applied as a segment stretches beyond what it has already absorbed.
Conversions at flat spend
53.4
Today 47 · +6.4
Nothing goes live without your approval.
1,711 combinations · demo data, modelled deterministically
